We were talking this morning. What will be the medium term impact of the security measures.
If you were booked to fly on 16 August, would you continue with your plans? Are you booked to fly on 16 August? If so, how do you feel?
Jimmy reckons that people will be cancelling left, right and centre, but I'm not sure it's so straightforward.
If I had plans to travel to Western Europe I would be reconsidering them. I'm not sure about a package holiday/charter flight, but if I wanted to be in a certain place at a certain time, I would just think maybe it's quicker to get the train and change at Paris or Brussels rather than spend the same time in Gatwick Chav terminal. I flew to Manchester last year because it was cheaper and quicker (weekend engineering works) but I got the train this year £25 return and travelling Friday and Monday.
Jimmy reckoned that on Thursday lots of people would be avoiding the London Underground. I said, unlikely, because life goes on. I don't think people generally make mass panic decisions, but often people allow factors subconsciously to influence decisions that are often taken on balance at the best of times. The inconvenience, delays, cancellations and uncertainties of air travel at the moment are a factor to tip the balance.
It's like last August, when we went into town the Tubes and streets were noticeably empty, but the Proms we attended were filled to capacity. As it happens I don't recall going into town except for already-booked events (Proms). But not once did we make a conscious decision not to go. It was, like, what shall we do this Saturday. Let's go to that nice restaurant in Clapham, or let's eat in the garden. Not let's avoid London because of security.
The funny thing is, if airport security is stepped up semi-permanently, it will be a good thing for the planet. More people will video-conference rather than travel to talking shops. It won't be so attractive to commute from Barcelona to London. That stag weekend in Tallinn won't be so much fun.
I think we're supposed to feel sorry for the airline industry because this will cost them money. On the other hand, until recently most people only flew once or twice a year at most. Whereas increasingly people of relatively modest incomes don't think twice of getting on a plane as frequently as I got on trains fifteen years ago.
