Two cheers for Stephen Byers. I agree with what he says. But it has rather come from the Department of the Bleedin' Obvious.
And well done Lancaster University for a study on what any half-intelligent party ex-activist knows for certain - the slogging on the streets matters.
I cite 1992 General Election. In Streatham we worked and worked and worked. I personally canvassed one street four times: on the final Sunday, one chap my own age answered the door and said he had been expecting me, he wanted a Vote Labour poster for his window, like everyone else. I assured him that I personally had already visited three times.
Very many intelligent, in touch people say, "I'm not voting for them, they haven't bothered coming to our door." At first it sounds like petulance. Actually, it means that they perceive that that particular party don't believe they stand a chance in that election in that ward or constituency.
Post election analysis showed that the swing in Streatham was above the national average. Other seats, where Labour should have won and didn't, which became key marginals for 1997, which ensured a Tory victory in 1992, had a much lower level of activity.
At some stage I shall read the Lancaster study. Psephology is a truly fascinating subject.
The LibDims have proved it time and again in by-elections, when they have shiploads of people coming from Outer London to campaign in a miserable council by-election in some grotty part of Inner London in a wet and cold November.
1998 Local Elections. My ward, we barely leafleted each household once. Frankly, you could put up a donkey with a red rosette, and she would be elected - and she was. The Dims did nothing, the Tories targeted a handful of blocks inhabited by aspirant young owner-occupiers. Turnout barely crept above 20%. In another ward, Tory-held at the time, all three parties believed they could win it, and all three parties threw in the troops. Turnout approached 60%, still barely respectable, and Labour triumphed.
Ten, thirteen years ago, we used to discuss politics at meetings. Then the modernisers decided to remove the politics from politics and many with a fire in their belly just stopped going. I shall be going to my branch meeting on Thursday, but only because the 'guest' speaker is the Minister for Housing and Planning and London (and owner of the Dome). I say 'guest'; he happens to be a BaSH Branch member.
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