If I were Gordon Brown, which obviously I'm not, because if I were Gordon Brown I wouldn't be blogging my thoughts about whether or not to call a snap general election this autumn, but I were Gordon Brown I wouldn't call a General Election.
It is only two and a half years since the last General Election, and although Parliaments rarely last their full five terms - the 1992-97 Parliament went almost to the limit, but that was Major's desperation at staring humiliating defeat in the face - there is a general perception that four years is about right. It was necessary for Wilson to call quick elections in 1966 and 1974 in order to increase a slim majority and turn a minority government into a majority, respectively. The current Parliamentary majority is big.
The Tories tried to make it out as a constitutional necessity that there be an Election after Brown took over, which is total rot, and to do so would undermine Parliamentary Democracy - we vote for a Local Representative, often/usually on the basis of Party label and we expect the Leader of the biggest party to form a government, as First Among Equals. We do not vote directly for the Head of Government.
I have a perception that Elections tend to bore people. Not always, especially not when the result is in doubt, but I do strongly fell that people in general do not care for unnecessary elections.
Autumn Elections are not good news. They are not good news for activists - I do not feel comfortable leafleting in the dark, or the cold, rainy, windy days that are typical of later October and November. Fewer people will open their doors when canvassed. And people are less likely to leave their warm hearths to go to a Polling Station on a dark autumn night than in May or June. There has only been one Autumn General Election in my life-time, that of 74 which was necessitated by political deadlock. It followed an equally unsuitable February one when Ted Heath - Who Rules Britain? and the electorate said "Not you mate!".
I can see the attraction for going early, with opinion polls looking good, the "Brown Bounce" matching the "Cameron Decline". But if I were Gordon Brown - which I'm not - I would not be able to sleep with fear that I blow it and become the shortest serving PM in history, except for George Canning who died in office.
There is always the fear of - like Jim Callaghan - leaving it too late. All the experts predict an economic downturn in the next couple of years. And even if the reasons for economic changes are clearly to do with global factors outside the control of any one particular government, the electorate tend to hold the Government responsible, which I don't regard as a bad thing in itself.
None of the know-it-all pundits in the papers I have read have mentioned the Olympics. An autumn 2007 election would lead (probably) to a Spring/Summer 2012 Election. If I were Gordon Brown, which I am not, I would have some trepidation at holding an election at a time when, probably, all the infrastructure projects will be struggling to complete on time, way above budget, and the criticisms of the whole endeavour will be at their shrillest and loudest. A successful Olympiad will create an Election-winning Feel Good Factor - perhaps - but I wouldn't wish to risk holding out until the last minute in order to reap the Olympic benefits.
But Gordon Brown hasn't asked my advice, even though he knows where to find me should he want it! And if he does call a snap Autumn election, I shall be blogging "Vote Labour". But I don't know who will be the Labour candidate where I live (sadly, our wonderful MP since 1992, Keith Hill, will be standing down after years of tireless service to the constituency of Streatham including Brixton Hill, Clapham Park and parts of Balham)
